• What are Therapeutic Market Outlooks?
• Available Reports
• Pricing and Deliverables
• TMO Sample Pages

TMO Home

Report Overview

Table of Contents

Tables and Figures

TMO Overview - Asthma/COPD

Asthma and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disorder (COPD) are two distinct lung diseases in which obstruction to airflow interferes with normal breathing. Asthma is a chronic disease characterized by inflamed and constricted airways that results in reduced air flow to lung tissue. COPD comprises two distinct lung diseases that commonly co-exist: chronic bronchitis and emphysema. Neither asthma nor COPD has a known cure, although medicinal therapies can reduce symptoms and improve the quality of life for patients suffering from both afflictions. The asthma/COPD market provides interesting opportunities and challenges. In both instances, disease management depends heavily on patient compliance, which, particularly in asthma, remains quite low. For patients with asthma, low compliance is driven by the intermittent nature of their symptoms, by their perceived lack of benefit from maintenance therapies, and by the relative lack of generic alternatives which inhibits compliance via the high cost of branded medications. Compliance among COPD patients is higher, in part, because of persistent, daily symptoms.

While the asthma/COPD market has remained relatively immune to generic inroads up to this point, the U.S. asthma market will see a significant drop in revenue following 2012, primarily due to the entry of generic competition for Singulair and the launch of branded generic Advair. The COPD market, by contrast, will benefit from a faster growing patient population and a high level of R&D investment to meet fundamental unmet medical needs. AVOS estimates that the U.S. market for asthma/COPD medications will remain relatively stagnant, with total market revenues barely moving from $12.66 billion in 2008 to $12.70 billion in 2013 after reaching a peak of $14.25 billion in 2012.

AVOS Life Sciences' TMO Asthma and COPD report addresses each key aspect of a rigorous, disease-based market analysis:

Market Size & Expected Growth	In-depth epidemiological analysis and modeling Detailed review of current and projected treatment landscape at a class level
Treatment Cascade	Consideration of the treatment algorithms for primary indication Impact of manipulating treatment cascade through promotional and other initiatives
Drug Class Characteristics	Fundamentals: safety, efficacy, side effects, onset of action, duration, etc. Developer strengths and weaknesses (technology, marketing, sales, etc.)
Competitive Landscape	Comprehensive competitve pipeline overview at a drug level In-depth review of all major competing treatment mechanisms and drug classes
Pricing & Reimbursement Landscape	Where appropriate, price elaticity calculations based on payer and provider interviews Evaluation of reimbursement landscape for indication and similar projects
Class Position Effects	Detailed research and analysis for first-in-class products Scenario analysis of entrants into markets with existing products
Projected Market Share Shifts	Sophisticated uptake models (historical view, firm and product attributes) Predictions for shifts resulting from the use of several marketing levers

Key findings in AVOS's TMO Asthma and COPD report include:

• Despite aggressive competition for new patient starts from Symbicort, Advair is projected to maintain market leadership in the U.S., losing only 0.7% market share by 2009: Advair and Symbicort are projected to represent the most viable therapies for second-line asthma treatment when inhaled corticosteroid treatment...
• Relatively equal playing field in terms of formulary access is expected to continue to put the battle for market share in the trenches driven by marketing power and personal promotion: Within the asthma and COPD market, we project that the predominant model for formulary design will...
• Capacity coming "on-line" for HFA-propelled albuterol products is expected to shape volume and, especially, pricing practices as generic albuterol inhalers will be withdrawn from the market in compliance with the Montreal Protocol's ban on CFC propellants: CFC capacity is currently being phased out in preparation for the mandatory conversion by Q4 2008. As a result...
• Organic market growth over the forecast period will be driven largely by the growing COPD population - a result of the rapidly aging baby boomer generation: The AVOS market model estimates that both the diagnosed and treated COPD populations will grow from...
• Generics threaten to enter the asthma/COPD maintenance medication market for the first time in early 2012: The asthma/COPD market, unlike most other therapeutic markets, has not faced the loss of exclusivity threat. Due to the lack of an abbreviated regulatory approval process for inhaled drugs...

The AVOS TMO Asthma and COPD report prepares both commercial and R&D professionals for the influx of generics and new product entrants that will shape the market in the years to come.